Playing the 'game on the field'

Nick is one of the best in the seed game and he makes a good point here. If you are trying to be great, blowing with the wind feels like a sure fire route to the median. 

But it begs the question: to what extent should investors or founders be aware of the field at all?

I often think one of the most important aphorisms in life is that what’s most important is not being good at the game - it’s figuring out what game you’re playing in the first place. World class skills in Monopoly will not help you on the chess board.

But, once you figure out the game, the goal is figuring out your edge on that field - what can you do that puts you out ahead of everyone else? What are the tools you have at your disposal? Looking at the way others play ignores the fact that they are operating with different tools. Background / network / brand / access etc… you didn’t attend Harker? Tuff.

For founders and to some extent, VCs, the current meta, ‘game on the field’ is Attention and how to convert it into Velocity. How do you grab it, maintain it and then harvest it. Huge moves like Cognition buying Windsurf over the weekend are emblematic of a premium on Attention - it’s no surprise it’s been one-two punches with news of their enterprise roll outs with Citi & Goldman. Once you catch the wave you have to keep paddling. They saw the opportunity and swam like maniacs. 

Conviction is basically every VCs example of a new firm that has come out of the game swinging - similar vibe - saw the AI wave coming - went all in and ran a flood the zone podcast / programs / high pace deal velocity into early AI winners - all to get out in front where it’s easier to maintain the momentum. But again - only possible with the tools, well used, that Sarah had from her background. 

But not all of us out there have this in their DNA, or start in the right circles to hear the dark arts from up close (Lulu mafia) - it’s a tough muscle to build if you don’t get it naturally, so you have to find your own way of winning in this environment. But can you ignore it? I don’t think so. 

The Attention game for companies plays across into investing. Increasingly the winners in every market segment are being crowned earlier and earlier - everyone wants to be in the winner so the sooner you can manifest that aura, the better. 

Second time founders and crack teams assembled under top tier incubation style models are raising big money out the gate - giving them that extra hoosh of velocity on day 1. Founders raised on Logan Paul are launching the first wave of YouTube-generation companies with the media chops to match - will these be the ultimate winners? tbc. Do they have the advantage now? Absolutely. 

As an emerging seed investor, same as a founder coming from outside the inner sanctum of the Bay you can’t really try to play those games - sure you can argue that your 500k at 35m post on the way in will hopefully hold at .5% by exit and all you need is one 10B outcome to make the whole show work. But really, hitting an all time banger from day 1 and only getting back a half bar? Math don’t math if you aspire to be great.

You have to observe the field - adjust to the new rules - but play it your own way. You might not look as smart in the short term - but if you don’t want to end up average (in both venture & start ups this is very bad) it’s the only way to be.